I told people that these three guys were doomed even before the election. I don’t know how they wanted to win. It is more of having one’s head in the cloud.
One party divided into three shortly before a general election can’t win. They simply clear out each other. They dont have technical analysts. They simply share their votes with minimal incursion into apc strong holds.
Thank God for the currency policy colonization of CBN, the fuel crisis, if not by now, no one will be taking about the numbers, Asiwaju declaration speech will be object of debate. He would have won with far greater margin.
The man is the cat with nine lives. He plays his game very well and will never let any slob mess them for him. He knows his weaknesses, compliment this with strong first class minds and ideologues. He fixes mind on the trophy and refused to be distracted. He kicks at the right time and speaks when the time is most auspicious.
He hates no one. He believes life is about interest. Today you are not with him, the next he brings you on board. He courts and builds relationships. He develops his vision while others are sleeping. He will allow you take the crumbs while he waits for the full meal. He surrendered his senate ambition to Ganiyu Solomon, refused to be VP or nominated his wife but picked an apolitical pastor whom he invested so much in trust and otherwise. When he wanted to play the cheat on him, he released his boys to go for him. He made them ostracized him and cut him off politically. He simply made an Akintola out of him.
For almost 20 years he decided his ambition, played his game, worked for it. Set up a party pushed out cronies he knew won’t win, expand the platform to negotiate and bargain with the northern new power brokers and traditional rulers. They believe he keeps his words and don’t stab from behind. The old order however are scared of his independent mind, courage and boldness. He dealt a big blow on the afenifere group, made a mess of OBJ, cut off Bode George but have the likes of General Ipoola Akinrinade, Prof. Soyinka, and other key strategic guys from his race around him.
The above illustrate how to build an ambition. He didn’t build his own on quick sands. The outcome is the result of this election that many are yet to accept its reality. They are not realists, he is. He has his feet firmly on the ground.
Rather than take advantage of the poor state of the economy, security and disenchantment with the APC regime by building strong alliances across the country, they choose to be over ambitious and refused to accept that three of them can’t all be president at same time. This is one lessons of life. Inordinate ambition. Lack of flexibility. Lack of strategic thinking.
In 2015, Asiwaju led a merger process that defeated the ruling party. The proponent of the merger were not oblivious of the fact of history. They knew none of the small and regional parties can confront a political behemoth like PDP, hence the need for handshakes across. They even went ahead and poach strategic members of the ruling party, used them and later dump them knowing how prostitutous they are.
Rather than build a formidable party to confront the APC, the pdp got fractionalised into PDP-NNP, PDP-Labour, PDP- Dubai and even the 5 renegade governors. The outcome is the failure they refused to accept today.
Obi led a mob that was built around religious and ethnic sentiments. Telling the church to take over the country. The message sounded sweet to the leaders of many of the pentecostal unit, but they ignored the startling consequences of making such statement in a country with many religions. His native people who some years back hated him in their utterances for his dismal performance as a governor, suddenly saw a route to the presidency, bullying and insulting everyone on the way, forgetting that winning the presidential election is beyond region. They didn’t read history very well. Awo tried it, he failed.
They got supports from the youths down south mostly influenced by their huge membership of the pentecostal churches and collective excitement. This group is filled majorly by those into showbiz, comedians, musicians, artists etc.
Atiku built his candidacy and championed it on the basis of the large population of voters from the north. He appealed to his people who naturally feel entitled to the leadership of the country. The same Atiku whose permanent home town is Dubai wants to be President since 1992, yet has refused to build the needed capacity to win. He lacked conviction, lacked tack and unstable.
Kwankwaso on the other hand knew about his limited reach but wanted to prove a point. Yes he has proved that point. He is truly a spoiler.
The three of them simply canceled each other out. Every where they won, Asiwaju came second. In Kano Kwakwanso won, but Asiwaju’s margin of over 400k against Atiku was more than enough to clear out the loss to him in Osun, Yobe, Katsina, and Adamawa. Obi won Lagos but the winning didn’t translate to anything. The margin was not up to a 10th of his loss in Ondo, Osun, Ekiti, Oyo State, talk less of Niger and Kwara.
They refused to deal with the ruling party as one unit. They have themselves to blame. Anyone who has been following politics will know that none of them was going to win. In 1983, the failure of Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe to step down for one another led to the massive winning of NPN.
An alliance that was muted by the turks in the north led by Shehu Musa Yaradua, to confront NPN failed because the two gladiators were not ready to step down. Both wanted to become president but forgot the theory of probability. They were not going to be president at same time. They failed to accept that. Instead, they went into the election as two weak parties.
The consequence, UPN failed to win Oyo, Bendel though gained Kwara due to the crisis between Adamu Attah and Olusola Saraki the then governor of kwara state from the Ebira stock and senate majority leader respectively. The same thing played out in Oyo State when UPN at the last minute had great members like Chief S.M. Afolabi from Ire and Osun Divison alongside the likes of Chief Busari Oloyede Adelakun the strong man from Ejioku in now Lagelu Local Government and others decanting to NPN. They teamed up with Oyo, Ogbomosho and Ibadan axis of the NPN to defeat UPN.
On the part of Nigeria People’s Party (NPP) led by Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe they failed to win anambra his own home state and Benue under Aper Aku. The party was only able to retain Imo state because of the strong influence and performance of Sam Mbakwe. Even Jim Nwobodo was defeated by the combined strength of Dr. C.C. Onoh and Ikemba Odimegwu Ojukwu.
This election has come and gone. These guys making noises now, didn’t plan to win. If at all they did, their plans were on very weak grounds. They also seem to have their heads in the cloud. They forgot the rules. Numbers, unity of the team, capacity, financial muscle, relationship across the many divides. Etc.
Way forward.
The country needs a strong opposition. The country must exist with a strong alternative at all times. The best way to make the ruling party to perform is to have a strong shadow ruling party. But not in the mold of PDP. Democracy strives on the basis of regular election with options to make choices.
Having said that, Kwankwaso and Obi must reach a deal on how to work together, work with soludo to deepen their hold in the South East and build relationships beyond. The new party should should desist from playing religious and ethnic card. Forget about building mobs. Forget about being fantasized by religious leaders with crooked interest. Play genuine opposition and grow numbers by harvesting renegades from the ruling party, identify the strength of ruling party and attack them from their weakest point.
To my mind, this is the best election since the days of June 12. Imagine a sitting president loosing his state, the projected winner loosing his main base, key strategic governors not able to deliver. Labour party, NNP and APGA should merge, leave pdp out and start working for the next election.
Written by Williams Akalumhe, a Financial Expert and a Political Analyst
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